Brexit is…

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As the reality of Brexit sets in, politicians and constitutional lawyers set off into uncharted
waters. No one really knows how it will all work out, neither in the United Kingdom nor the European Union. Eurac Research’s Sara Parolari, an expert in constitutional law and UK devolution, addresses some of the impact of Brexit on the EU, and what it could mean for the UK‘s secessionist movements.

Are referendums the right way for countries to make decisions that can have such serious international consequences?
Parolari: Referendums are used in the UK to mitigate the sovereignty of the parliament. They represent the will of the people and are thus an appropriate check on the sovereign power of Westminster. From a legal perspective, referendums are consultative only, and Parliament is not obliged to follow their recommendations. But here enters the politics of it—for all intents and purposes they are politically binding: parliament could never ignore the result of a referendum because the political consequences would be too devastating. For this reason, it is very risky to use referendums to decide relevant topics such as leaving the European Union, but the British legal system provides for them in order to control, contain and complete the power of the UK Parliament.

Is there any way that another legal provision in the UK or EU could prevent or forestall the departure of the UK?
Parolari: As there is no precedent in the European Union, it is not clear what will happen after an agreement between the UK and the EU—if any—is reached. It is likely that ratification by the UK and European parliaments will be required. However, once the agreement with the EU is reached it is quite unlikely that either parliament would vote against it. At that point consent would be taken for granted— a kind of “take it or leave it” scenario.

 

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How should the EU react to Brexit?

What will the challenges be for the European Union if the UK cannot successfully renegotiate its treaties and has to make a hard Brexit?
Parolari: The UK risks to suffer more from a hard Brexit than the EU, especially if they are not able to negotiate a new trade agreement. Regardless, there would undoubtedly be consequences for the EU as well, for example, restrictions on the free movement of EU citizens entering Britain, as well as doubts about the residency rights of EU citizens living in the UK. And there are the economic consequences as well: if the UK leaves the single market system, it may have an impact on industry, the import and export of goods and financial flows. The shock election result last June, which has weakened the Theresa May government, will probably have huge but unknowable consequences: at the moment, the only thing most people agree on is that it will be now very difficult for the British government to pursue the kind of “clean break” with the EU that it was pushing for.

 

The UK risks to suffer more from a hard Brexit than the EU, especially if they are not able to negotiate a new trade agreement.

The Scottish Parliament voted to back Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a second referendum on the succession of Scotland. How has Brexit altered the landscape of devolution movements in the UK?

Parolari: Brexit has had a significant influence on devolution in the UK, and not only in Scotland. The majority of the population of Northern Ireland also voted ‘Remain’ as well. In Scotland, Brexit has strengthened nationalism and the Scottish National Party (SNP). The problem is that although the Scottish Parliament voted to hold another referendum to revisit the failed succession attempt of September 2014, only the UK Parliament has the power to approve a referendum. A constitutional and political showdown is thus quite likely. And this is true even more when considering that in the General election the SNP suffered huge losses, putting plans for a second vote on independence in jeopardy. Furthermore, in order for the UK to enact ist post-Brexit immigration policies and leave the single market, it must be able to control its borders, and in particular the one between North and South Ireland. In this sense, the prospect of the North’s reunification with the Republic of Ireland is becoming more and more feasible.

What is the take-home message for the European Union from this whole experience?
Parolari: Brexit has been a difficult experience for the EU because it brought to light its weaknesses. The EU faces a range of political and economic pressures, including slow growth and persistently high unemployment in many EU countries, as well as the rise of populist political parties, at least some of which harbour anti-EU or “euro-sceptic” sentiments. Brexit is the last consequence of these phenomena.

 

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